While events on the other side of the world – and the other end of the US Capitol – have dominated recent news, the race for control of the Senate is a crucial factor in what Washington could look like after next year’s elections.
The 2024 Senate map is advantageous for Republicans as they try to pick up the one or two seats needed to flip the chamber, depending on who wins the White House next year. Members of the Senate Democratic Caucus are defending the most competitive seats – the top eight on this list of 10 seats most likely to flip – which is not likely to change ahead of November 2024.
The order of the ranking, however, is changing. (Rankings are based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising figures and historical data about how states and candidates have performed.) Pennsylvania, for example, shoots up from No. 7 in July to No. 4 this month – in large part because it’s the one battleground where Republicans aren’t facing a messy primary.
GOP candidate fields elsewhere have only grown over the past couple of months, despite the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s new policy of taking sides in primaries. Besides Pennsylvania, the national party has made its preference known for specific candidates in West Virginia, Montana, Nevada and Michigan. The NRSC is neutral in Ohio’s crowded primary and hasn’t ruled out endorsing in Arizona.
Whether engaging in primaries early on will pay off remains to be seen. So far, however, NRSC Chairman Steve Daines’ tactic of keeping Donald Trump close appears to be working, as the former president hasn’t yet endorsed against any of the campaign committee’s picks.
The GOP presidential front-runner – with his four criminal indictments – is likely to be a liability in some places next year if he is the party’s nominee. But Republicans take comfort in the fact that he won the top…
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