A warmer North, wetter South because of El Nino, climate change

A man walks in the rain along a street in Austin, Texas, Nov. 11, 2022.

Jay Janner/AP

The upcoming United States winter looks likely to be a bit low on snow and extreme cold outbreaks, with federal forecasters predicting the North to get warmer than normal and the South wetter and stormier.

A strong El Nino heavily moderates and changes the storm tracks of what America is likely to face from December to February, with an added warming boost from climate change and record hot oceans, officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said this month in releasing their winter outlook.

The forecast warmth will likely turn some storms that would have dumped snow into rain in the nation’s northern tier, but there’s also “some hope for snow lovers,” with one or two possible whopping Nor’easters for the East Coast, said Jon Gottschalk, operations branch chief of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Parts of the East Coast, particularly the Mid-Atlantic, may get more snow than normal because of that, he said.

Most of the country is predicted to be warmer than normal with that warmth stretching north from Tennessee, Missouri, Nebraska and Nevada, along with nearly all of California. The rest of the nation is forecast to be near normal or have equal chances for warm, cold or normal. NOAA doesn’t predict any part of the U.S. to be cooler than normal this winter.

“The greatest odds for warmer than average conditions are in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and northern New England,” Gottschalk said.

A similarly large southern swath of the country is predicted to be wetter. The forecast of added moisture stretches from…