Deep discounts are driving a strong start to holiday online spending, according to new data from Adobe Analytics. Facing sticky inflation and economic uncertainty, consumers are belt-tightening, which is good news for Club names that help shoppers score bargains. Online shoppers spent $63.2 billion in the first 20 days of November — up 5% year-over-year and beating Adobe’s full-season forecast of 4.8% growth. Throughout November online consumer spending also notched a new record, with 17 days of the month raking in $3 billion in single-day sales, compared to 13 days in 2022. Adobe estimates total spending for the holiday season — for the months of November and December — to notch $221.8 billion. Online sales were $210 billion last year and $205 billion in 2021. While online sales this year look healthy, there have also been other less optimistic overall holiday spending forecasts — including from a number of retailers that reported earnings this week as well as recent research notes from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America , which we analyzed in earlier commentaries. Still, Adobe highlights a favorable setup for Club holdings such as off-price destination TJX Companies and e-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN). While measuring online holiday spending, the report’s emphasis on bargain-driven sales signals that shoppers at brick-and-mortar locations would feel the same way. So far in November Online sales for apparel were up 22% this month compared to daily average sales in October, according to Adobe data. Apparel was discounted on average at 21% from listed online prices. TJX YTD mountain TJX Companies (TJX) year-to-date performance Steeper discounts and growing apparel numbers bode well for TJX, which owns T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods. TJX’s chains have the ideal businesses for a belt-tightening consumer with cheaper products than their full-price peers. During last week’s earnings call, TJX management acknowledged that online remains a small part of…
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