The fragile pause in Israel’s onslaught against Hamas in Gaza, which has enabled the release so far of 58 hostages, has been surprisingly enduring given that neither side is in direct contact and each is bent on obliterating the other.
The question now is how long the intersection of interests that led to the deal will prevail, allowing the return of more of those abducted in the Hamas terror attacks in Israel and the entry into Gaza of more trucks of desperately needed aid.
While Americans celebrated Thanksgiving, a rush of developments in the Middle East led to emotional reunions among hostages and their families. But the plight of the majority still in captivity and that of Palestinian civilians underscored the brutal toll of the war. And with President Joe Biden back in Washington after his holiday weekend in Nantucket, Massachusetts, medium- and longer-term factors are coming into view that suggest the fighting could soon be raging again – and become even more intractable and costly.
Still, hopes are rising that after the agreed four-day span of releases, the deal will not end as scheduled on Monday. Hamas is pushing to enact a clause in the original arrangement that would see extra days of pauses in Israeli strikes in return for the freeing of each group of 10 hostages. The Israeli Cabinet has discussed the idea. And the US and Qatar – the two critical intermediaries in the deal – are seeking to use the momentum of the pause to create a foundation for a more permanent end to the fighting that could see more hostages freed and civilians shielded in Gaza.
In the short term, Israel and Hamas both appear to have strong reasons to continue the truce. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been under extreme pressure from the families of those held captive, may get a measure of political relief as more hostages come home. Hamas, meanwhile, has…
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