A 48-hour extension to the Israel-Hamas truce will not pause the strategic dilemmas and political headaches wracking the Biden administration over the war.
Although the two extra days of hostage releases, the release of Palestinian prisoners and humanitarian aid pouring into Gaza validate an intense diplomatic effort in which the US is deeply involved, the situation remains delicate and a resumption of fighting ultimately seems likely.
— The most urgent question facing the White House is: Where are the Americans? Despite hopes that at least three US citizens would be released during the original four-day pause, only orphaned 4-year-old American-Israeli girl Abigail Edan came out of Gaza, to the deep disappointment of US officials.
— And while Israel is signaling it is open to another extension, it is also warning that an eventual resumption of its offensive against Hamas will be more intense than before the truce. That could cause more civilian casualties, like earlier in the war, which included bombing of civilian areas and sieges over Gaza hospitals. Any domestic political relief Biden enjoys during the pause, amid deep divisions in his Democratic Party ahead of next year’s election, is therefore unlikely to last long after air strikes begin again.
— There are also growing indications that Biden’s push for more than $14 billion in aid for Israel is running into even deeper uncertainty on Capitol Hill. The package has been caught up in controversies over a larger Ukraine aid package and US southern border security in a way that is underscoring how ungovernable domestic politics are now severely hampering Washington’s capacity to work its will abroad.
— While the administration’s stern warnings to its adversaries have so far helped contain the conflict, fears of regional escalation are not yet dimmed. The dangers for US personnel were…
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