CFP matchups: Yards will be hard in Michigan-Alabama; red-zone success could decide Texas-Washington

The final four-team College Football Playoff promises to be one of the closest in the 10-year history of the event.

The combined spread of the two New Year’s Day semifinals sits at six points, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. No. 1 Michigan is a 1 1/2-point favorite against fourth-seeded Alabama in the Rose Bowl. No. 3 Texas is a 4 1/2-point favorite over No. 2 Washington in the Sugar Bowl.

That’s the smallest combined line for the CFP semifinals since the 2017 playoff, when Georgia beat Oklahoma in overtime at the Rose Bowl as a 2 1/2-point favorite and Alabama was favored by 3 1/2 against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl and rolled over the Tigers.

The matchups that will decide each CFP semifinal, with the winners advancing to the Jan. 8 championship game in Houston.

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Alabama’s offense and quarterback Jalen Milroe have been a work in progress this season. Recent Crimson Tide teams have paired eventual first-round draft pick quarterbacks with a bevy of star receivers to create explosive offenses.

This isn’t that. Alabama is 30th in the country in yards per play (6.36) and has allowed 43 sacks, a woeful 123rd nationally, while throwing only 302 passes (122nd nationally).

“The big question will be which Alabama offensive line shows up because the one we saw against Georgia (in the SEC championship game) was dominant. There have been times this year where they have been a flat-out liability,” Cole Cubelic, who works as an analyst for ESPN and the SEC Network, said on the AP Top 25 College Football Podcast.

Michigan doesn’t have one player up front defensively that stands out as a star — the way Alabama All-America edge rusher…