The Israel-Hamas war is affecting traveler confidence and bookings

The Israel-Hamas war is affecting travel across the Middle East and beyond.

International arrivals to the region grew in the fourth quarter of 2023 — mainly owing to an increase in visitors to Saudi Arabia — to a level that matched 2019 numbers, according to the travel data company ForwardKeys.

But it’s a far cry from the 30% rise in inbound travelers the region was expecting compared to 2019 levels, based on the number of airline tickets purchased before the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, the company said.  

The outlook for 2024 doesn’t look much different.

“The forward-looking situation for arrivals to the Middle East in the first quarter of 2024 as of 6 Oct. — the day before the recent conflict started — was very positive, with tickets issued up by 49% vs pre-pandemic levels,” said Olivier Ponti, the company’s vice president of insights. “Fast-forward to 5 Jan. … with tickets issued now up by just 9% vs. 2019.”

Data showed air tickets to the Middle East purchased after the war fell 6% from 2019, with purchases to the United Arab Emirates down 8%, Morocco 15%, Turkey 17% and Egypt 21%. Tickets to Jordan were affected the most, falling 50% from 2019 levels, according to ForwardKeys.

Yet, the war’s effect on travelers extends far beyond the Middle East, according to a survey from Morning Consult.

The data research company surveyed some 2,200 Americans in November, with one in five people saying they have delayed, rescheduled or canceled a travel booking as a direct result of the Israel-Hamas war. 

Respondents said these plans included visits to the Middle East (12%) and North Africa (7%), as well as Western Europe (14%), according to the survey. However, the bulk of the cancelations — 41% — were for trips within the United States, the survey showed.

Cancelations were high for domestic trips because most Americans travel within the 50 states, thus “there are simply more trips on the table to disrupt,” the report stated.

But as to…