The South Carolina Republican presidential primary is usually the most important contest of the nominating season. The state’s propensity for picking the eventual GOP nominee is unmatched by any other early-voting state. Since 1980, the only Republican to win the nomination without winning South Carolina was Mitt Romney in 2012.
This year, if history holds, it could mean the beginning of the end for Nikki Haley’s campaign.
Republican front-runner Donald Trump is dominating the polls. The former president has led every single poll in the state by at least 20 points this year. Surveys that meet CNN’s standards for publication have Trump up by at least 30 points this month.
To put that in perspective, I can’t find a single example of a well-polled presidential primary in the past 40 years in which a candidate has overcome the deficit Haley currently faces in her home state.
(Democrat Bernie Sanders’ 2016 Michigan primary win was the biggest recent shocker, and CNN approved surveys had him down by less than 20 points going into the election.)
Another ominous sign for Haley: Since the modern primary era began in 1972, no major-party nominee has ever lost his or her home state during the primary season. To that point, Trump has shown a knack for beating fellow Republicans in the states where they were first elected.
You may recall that Trump defeated Marco Rubio in the 2016 Florida primary, prompting the senator to drop out of the race. We’ll see if Haley ends up doing the same, though she has indicated otherwise.
While Haley is unlikely to take South Carolina, she is definitely outperforming her national baseline. Polls out this week from Marquette University Law School and Quinnipiac University have her losing to Trump by about 60 points on…
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