Before we get to our borderline wild weather ride ahead this week, let’s look at how we’ve done so far in February. Overall, it’s been a mild month locally and across much of the nation, as posted by University of Alaska climatologist Brian Brettschneider.
Locally, as I first reported in The Buffalo News back on Feb. 16: “So, we will remain on track for the warmest meteorological winter (December-February) on record during next week.” That trend continues. The statistical fly in the ointment, according to my friend Steve McLaughlin, retired NWS meteorologist, is that there was one warmer winter in 1931-32, before the NWS moved from downtown to the airport: “The full winter record at airport (81 yrs) is 32.9 in 2015-16, so we easily will beat that, but one winter was warmer in the longer record (140 yr+), which includes downtown, which was 34.6 in 1931-32.”
As of Sunday, Buffalo’s monthly mean temperature was a substantial 7.5 degrees above average, an anomaly that will increase Monday through Wednesday as temperatures become unseasonably warm. Buffalo’s warmest temperature was 59, back on the Feb. 9. Our coldest low was 16, an unusually tepid coldest reading for February, hit twice this month. Snowfall has been a paltry 5.3 inches, more than 11 inches below average. For the season, Buffalo is at 58.9 inches, nowhere near a record low, but 18.1 inches below average, so far. Buffalo’s mean January temperature was 3.9 degrees above average, and December was extremely mild, with a +8 degree anomaly and just 5.7 inches of snow.
As for this week, Monday’s Buffalo lake temperature remains at a record-tying 35 degrees, and the absence of ice on any of the Great Lakes remains at a record-tying low level, including nothing on Lake Erie.
That absence of ice will play some role in our regional weather midweek, though that is no hint of lake effect doom.
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