Not that it should have come as a surprise, but the first four days of May delivered on the forecast gloomy and damp-to-wet conditions. The mean temperature for these days has been running a whopping 9.1 degrees below average. Despite this temporary anomaly, there is no disputing the overall mild trend for this year in the East.
It appears that this has been a warm start to the year in the East. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/i8r2z47XvU
— Brian Brettschneider (@Climatologist49) May 5, 2023
Friday won’t end up being a warm day, but readings will head from Thursday’s low 50s to the upper 50s … still below the average high of 63. You can track the improving sky conditions on an automatically updating GOES satellite imagery link.
For gardeners, we are now probably safe from any frost threat close to the lakes, although some light frost is not out of the question by Saturday morning except adjacent to the lakeshores. Farther inland, however, some patchy frost is likely to develop late Friday night under a mainly clear sky and a light wind east and south of the metro area. Even in these locations with chillier nighttime lows, frost currently appears unlikely after Friday night in the next week. However, the statistical norms averaged across the years do not rule out frost well into the month, so use caution with tender plantings, especially in Southern Tier valleys.
Saturday will be the nicest day so far this month, with a mostly sunny sky under a ridge of Canadian high pressure bringing just a very light northeast breeze, keeping the Lake Ontario and Chautauqua County shorelines a few degrees cooler than the forecast low 60s inland.
Sunday will be mild and tranquil, but the closer proximity of a warm front will gradually increase cloud cover. A few light showers may cross parts of the region in the afternoon, with highs in the mid-upper 60s.
The frontal boundary to our south will keep partial cloud cover with some sunshine mixed in on…
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