Putin congratulates ‘dear friend’ Erdogan as NATO’s Turkey challenge looks set to stay

Turkey on Sunday voted for another five years of the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the powerful, nationalist president who now enters his third decade in power.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was among the leaders that congratulated Erdogan on his win on Monday, calling him a “dear friend,” according to the Kremlin.

Turkey’s historical election is highly consequential for its population of 85 million, in terms of the future of the country’s democracy, economy and foreign relations. But it’s also deeply significant for many parts of the world beyond Turkey’s borders.

“Turkey is a vital, vital NATO ally for the United States and for the other NATO partners,” David Satterfield, former U.S. ambassador to Turkey, told CNBC just before the final presidential vote. Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952, boasts the alliance’s second-largest military after the U.S. and houses 50 American nuclear warheads and a major air base used by NATO forces.

It’s a manufacturing powerhouse at the crossroads of Asia and Europe, as well as an important agricultural exporter for many countries around the world. Turkey also hosts more than 4 million refugees.

More recently, Erdogan’s government is playing a leading diplomatic role between Russia and Ukraine and mediating the crucial Black Sea grain deal, which unlocks vital Ukrainian produce exports blocked by Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Erdogan has also stood in the way of some of the major goals of Turkey’s Western allies, such as aggressively pushing back on Russia for its war in Ukraine, and allowing Sweden into the NATO alliance. Erdogan’s friendly relationship with Putin and refusal to impose sanctions on Russia, as well as his government’s purchase of Russian weapons systems, makes many Western officials uneasy.

Putin, in his congratulatory message Monday, praised…