The evidence in the indictment against Donald Trump for his alleged mishandling of classified documents after leaving office can seem “jaw-dropping”.
The case marks the first time a former president has been indicted in federal court and just the second time a former president had been indicted anywhere (after Trump himself, earlier this year in New York county court).
What makes the charges even more ahistorical is that they come at a time when Trump is running for president. So just how will this new indictment play on the campaign trail?
Let’s just say we should be, at least initially, skeptical that Trump will be penalized in the polls.
An ABC News/Washington Post survey completed at the beginning of May asked whether Trump should face criminal charges over his alleged actions with the classified documents. A majority of Americans (54%) said he should. Just 38% said he should not.
That on its face may seem devastating for Trump. Keep in mind, though, that 50% of Americans indicated in an ABC News/Ipsos poll after his New York indictment related to alleged hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels. Far fewer Americans (33%) said he shouldn’t have.
The splits between “yes” and “no” on the two indictments are similar in the two surveys.
Yet, Trump didn’t see a polling penalty after his indictment in New York. His general election polling against President Joe Biden remained tight. Biden was a point ahead of him in an average of national surveys before the New York indictment. Today, Biden is, on average, tied with Trump in national polls.
Opinions on whether Trump should face charges are clearly correlated with how people feel about him overall. His national unfavorability rating averages out to around 57%. His favorability rating averages out to approximately 38%. That’s quite…
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