Don Paul: The holiday weekend will finish strong, and heat will follow

Even as of mid-morning, locally heavy amounts of rain had already fallen, putting a damper on our drought.

Following Monday’s daytime showers and a few rumbles of thunder, the humidity will remain high for Monday night, but the showers will fade during the early evening. By 10 p.m., nearly all of Western New York will be rain free, as modeled.

As for the Fourth, the day will start with some low clouds and fog, giving way to a partly sunny sky with humid and seasonably warm conditions. While an isolated inland shower can’t be ruled out during afternoon heating, a generally dry holiday can be expected. The high will range from the low-mid 80s, slightly cooler near Lake Erie. Sailors won’t have much wind to work with, with a west-southwest breeze under 10 knots, and wave heights averaging under 1 foot on both lakes. The Buffalo Lake Erie temperature is 66 degrees, 2 below average. The night of the Fourth will be humid and tranquil with evening temps slowly falling into the 70s. Again, with these conditions, insect repellent is recommended, otherwise it will be good hunting for mosquitoes.

Wednesday will bring some midsummer heat and humidity, with a light southwest flow coming around a weak high pressure ridge in the east. The afternoon high will be in the mid-upper 80s and may touch 90 well inland.

Heat and humidity return for Thursday, ahead of a slow-moving cold front which will trigger some scattered showers and thunderstorms toward evening and into Thursday night. Afternoon highs will again reach the upper 80s.

A little cooling, back to the upper 70s, arrives on Friday behind the cold front, when there may be a few lingering showers and thunderstorms under a partly sunny sky as humidity drops back to a more comfortable level.