Syracuse, N.Y. — Don’t pack up the kids and head north on Wednesday hoping to catch a glimpse of the Northern Lights in Upstate New York.
The internet was abuzz this week about forecasts showing that the Northern Lights could be visible as far south as Maryland. But NASA and meteorologists now say the glowing lights are almost certainly not going to be seen that far south.
“The chances this week [of seeing the Northern Lights] are slim at latitudes such as Maryland,” Bill Murtagh, the program coordinator at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center, told The Washington Post. “In northern-tier states, you might see a glow on the horizon.”
Veteran Buffalo meteorologist Don Paul tweeted today that the possibility of Northern Lights in Upstate New York had been “overblown in some of the media” reports on Monday.
“First of all, Northern Lights forecasts issued days in advance have a poor track record at best,” Paul said. “Secondly, cloud cover would likely be a problem locally.”
The reports this week were apparently based on a preliminary forecast issued 27 days ago when the sun first started showing signs it might issue a coronal mass ejection, or CME. When a CME hits the earth’s atmosphere, it creates the electric, wavering patterns known as the Northern Lights, or aurora borealis.
The latest forecast from the Space Weather Prediction Center, however, is rather dark for those wishing to see the lights.
“All SWPC results show the primary ejecta missing earth,” the center said.
In the unlikely event that the ejection reaches Earth, it would create only a faint glow likely visible no father south than the Hudson Bay, NASA said.
And clouds would likely cover it up here in Upstate New York, too. The National Weather Service predicts that clouds will cover 70% to 90% of the sky between 10 p.m. Wednesday and 2 a.m. Thursday, the best time to see the lights.
There is hope for the future, though, as an 11-year…
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