Is Ukraine’s counteroffensive failing? Defense experts say the risks facing Kyiv are growing

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been more sluggish than many expected and military analysts warn that the window of opportunity for breaking through Russian defenses — and making territorial gains — could close soon.

Kyiv’s counteroffensive was launched in June after months of preparation, but its progress has disappointed some onlookers who hoped for a faster regaining of Russian-occupied territory in the south and east of the country.

While Ukraine planned its counteroffensive over the winter — and waited for more military hardware from its international allies — Russian forces were heavily fortifying their positions along a 900-kilometer (559-mile) front line stretching from the Kharkiv-Luhansk border in the northeast of Ukraine, toward Kherson in the southwest.

Military analysts note that Ukraine now faces successive lines of Russian defenses that are, in some cases, 30 kilometers deep and consisting of minefields, anti-tank obstacles and extensive networks of trenches and bunkers that are covered by Russian drones, artillery and helicopters.

One of the biggest problems for Ukraine is that the timeframe for breaking through Russia’s defenses is limited, with only a few summer months left in which to make serious gains.

For Michael Clarke, a defense analyst and former director-general of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, there’s a risk that the first phase of the counteroffensive, designed to probe Russia’s defenses, takes too long.

“It was always intended to be a two-stage…