Will Mets use ‘cautionary tale’ in Pete Alonso trade decision?

Pete Alonso’s prodigious power numbers in his New York Mets career have been rivaled by only a few of the game’s greats.

But baseball contracts consider projections and comparisons, making Alonso’s future in New York a headline until it is decided. He has one year left of arbitration on his current contract and nearly got traded at the deadline. ESPN MLB reporter Buster Olney said that it’s clear the two parties are “very, very far apart” in his value, which could push the Mets to ultimately trade their star in the offseason.

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ESPN’s Paul Hembekides said as a guest on Olney’s “ESPN Baseball Tonight” podcast on Sept. 7 that the Mets’ decision should be to trade their 28-year-old star.

And he tied it to one player who Mets fans know well:

“I lived this with Ryan Howard,” Hembekides said. “You can’t compare players apples to apples, but I do think there is something instructive in comparing these two profiles just as a cautionary tale.”

Howard, the former Phillies slugger, put up eye-popping power numbers in the first half of his career before he tapered off into a below-average offensive producer in his 30s, the age Alonso will be during his next contract. From ages 25-31, Howard recorded 284 of his career 382 home runs and posted an OPS+ of 139. He led the league in home runs in 2006 (58) during an MVP season and in 2008 (48).

But from 2012-16, Howard posted an OPS+ of 95 with a .226/.392/.427 line and 96 home runs — at a time when he played out a five-year, $125 million contract. Howard tore his Achilles during the 2011 postseason and he was never the same.

“Pete Alonso’s processed-based stats haven’t really improved,” Hembekides continued. “His swing decisions, his strike zone discernment. We know that he adds no value on the bases. We know that at best, he can fake it at first base.

“We’re talking about a player who can’t add value on the margins.”

Over…