Shoppers are seen in a Kroger supermarket on October 14, 2022, in Atlanta, Georgia.
Elijah Nouvelage | AFP | Getty Images
Rising gasoline prices likely put a floor under inflation in February, potentially reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s decision to take a go-slow approach with interest rate reductions.
Economists expect that prices across a broad spectrum of goods and services rose 0.4% on the month, just ahead of the January pace for 0.3%, according to the Dow Jones consensus. Excluding food and energy, the increase for core inflation, is forecast at a 0.3% gain, also one-tenth of a percentage point above the previous month.
On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is expected to show a 3.1% gain and core inflation a 3.7% increase when the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its latest reading on the consumer price index Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The respective 12-month readings in January were 3.1% and 3.9%.
Though it has fallen sharply since its peak in mid-2022, inflation’s resilience almost certainly will assure no Fed rate cuts at its meeting on April 30-May 1, and possibly into the summer, according to current market pricing. Markets were rattled in January when the CPI data came in higher than expected, and Fed officials shifted their rhetoric afterwards to a more cautious tone about easing policy.
“While we do not expect the trend in inflation to re-accelerate this year, less clear progress over the next few months is likely to keep the Fed searching for more confidence that inflation is on course to return to target on a sustained basis,” Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said in a recent client note.
Energy prices had eased earlier in the winter, putting some downward pressure on headline readings.
But Wells Fargo estimates that energy services rebounded by 4% in February, leading to an increase at the pump, where a gallon of regular gas is up about 20 cents, or more than 6%, from a month ago, according to AAA.
The bank…
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