A flurry of new 2024 presidential election polls have a common thread: Republican frontrunner Donald Trump is leading incumbent President Joe Biden in a hypothetical November matchup.
In four separate surveys released over the weekend by The New York Times/Siena College, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal and CBS News/YouGov, Trump’s lead ranged from two points to five points among registered voters.
The Fox News and Wall Street Journal surveys both showed Trump with a two point lead over Biden, 49-47 and 47-45, respectively. This was within their 2.5% margins of error.
In the CBS News/YouGov poll, Trump led by four points, 52-48, outside the poll’s 2.8% margin of error.
The Times/Siena survey showed a slightly larger lead for Trump of five points, 48-43, also outside the poll’s 3.5% error margin.
Taken together, they paint a picture of a race that is extremely tight, but one where Trump’s advantage is solidifying.
In addition to the hypothetical matchup lead, the surveys also hinted at a deeper shift in voter perceptions of two men who have been campaigning against one another on and off for the past five years: They suggest Biden may be losing is long-held likability edge over Trump.
Across all four polls, Trump had a higher favorability rating than Biden did with respondents, although some were within the surveys’ margins of error.
This was unheard of during the 2020 election cycle, a race in which Biden ran as a candidate who promised to unite a country bitterly divided after four years under Trump.
In October of 2020, a Times/Siena polls found that 52% of respondents had a favorable view of Biden, while only 43% viewed then-President Trump favorably.
Last month, however, the tables had turned. Only 38% of Times/Siena respondents had a favorable view of Biden, while 44% saw Trump favorably. Similar splits were reflected in the Fox News and Wall Street Journal surveys.
Polls represent a snapshot in time, and are not necessarily predictive of future outcomes. The…
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