How — and when — Ukraine’s war with Russia could end

The war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand.

Instead, its forces are facing a 600-mile front line and extensive Russian defensive fortifications — in some places up to 19 miles deep — that were built in winter while Ukraine was waiting for more heavy weaponry from its allies before launching its counteroffensive in June.

It’s become clear that the counteroffensive won’t produce quick results and that success — however that might be measured in terms of retaking Russian-occupied territory — is not guaranteed.

Military experts warn that this means the war is likely to be prolonged, putting immense pressure on Ukraine to fight for several more years to come, potentially, and on its international partners to commit billions of dollars more in military, humanitarian and financial resources.

“Ukraine has to show it can make progress, but everybody knows that, given the size of the force that they have, that they are not going to throw every Russian out of Ukraine in 2023,” retired British General Richard Barrons, the former commander of the U.K.’s Joint Forces Command, told CNBC.

“By the end of this year, both sides will think they still have more to gain by fighting. Russia cannot give up, it can’t lose, because of the desperate consequences for the Russian regime, and Ukraine has not run out of the will to fight and isn’t prepared to give up the territory that’s been occupied, it just wants more help to take it back. And that will take us into 2024 and possibly into 2025,” he added.