It’s terrible to be clinical after watching horrifying pictures and having real feelings about the tragedy in Israel this weekend. But I have no choice but to be. Because as terrible as what happened is, it didn’t happen here and it didn’t happen in a place that directly impacts the stock market. Yes, oil will rally, but there will not be an oil embargo as there was after the 1973 Yom Kippur War to punish those countries that supported Israel. It’s not clear what can happen now. But it is difficult to believe that there will be another embargo when Israel was so clearly not the aggressor. Am I saying it doesn’t matter? Of course not. But is it really a sell-able event? Do you sell American stocks off of something tragic that happens in Ukraine or Israel or to any of our allies? It’s difficult to compute how you can justify it unless Treasurys get sold aggressively on the event because it is perceived as being inflationary. Do I think that we will be back considering earnings in a short period of time? Yes. Does that mean we will be thinking about PepsiCo (PEP), which reports Tuesday, by the start of the week? Probably before then. Is that because we are all rapacious capitalists? No, it is because we have the ability — good or bad — to focus on what’s existential for our country, not for Israel. What will the focus be on when it comes to PepsiCo? It will be what I think will be regarded as something that’s not going to be taken seriously, most likely a denial that the company has seen any decline in Frito Lay orders since the GLP-1 class of drugs has been introduced. That will be in direct conflict with what Walmart (WMT) said about a slowdown. That one comment by Walmart is what brought this cohort down beyond where bonds had already taken them. I think we will get a spirited defense that business is better than ever because, well, it’s PepsiCo and it has a pretty consistent worldwide base of its Frito Lay business. Will people choose to believe PepsiCo…
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