A workers stocks the shelves in a CVS pharmacy store on February 07, 2024 in Miami, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
Job growth in the U.S. likely decelerated in February while still a long way from stall speed as companies continue to keep up demand for workers.
When the Labor Department releases the nonfarm payrolls report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, it’s expected to show growth of 198,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7%, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates.
If the forecast is close to accurate, it would mark a considerable downshift from January’s explosive growth of 353,000, but still representative of a fairly vibrant labor market.
“This is kind of a cautious labor market. Employers are hiring to keep pace with business activity,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “Many businesses still report higher than expected sales. But they’re not aggressively hiring for growth and to expand. For that, many are still taking a wait-and-see approach.”
January’s surge followed a robust gain of 333,000 in December, seemingly countering the picture of an apprehensive hiring climate.
However, Pollak noted that both numbers were inflated from seasonal distortions, where retailers in particular cut fewer holiday jobs than expected. February, though, could see growth as high as 240,000, as companies look to fill an elevated level of open positions, Pollak said.
Too much growth?
ZipRecruiter’s quarterly job-seeker survey showed expectations for the medium-term outlook hitting a series high, while applicants also indicated stronger levels of confidence in their financial wellbeing and current state of the labor market.
Under normal conditions, those would all be positive attributes. But there are other concerns now.
A jobs market that remains red-hot could deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates this year as expected. Earlier this week, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed concern about potential “pent-up exuberance” that…
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