Taiwanese tanks and armored vehicles are deployed during a 2-day live-fire drill in September, amid intensifying threats from China. Taipei has been receiving more arms sales and weapons from the US, while fostering its ties with countries like Japan, the UK, Canada and India, as Beijing vows to unify Taiwan without excluding the possibility of using force. (Photo by Ceng Shou Yi/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
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Japan, South Korea and the Philippines will be hardest hit in the event of a conflict between Taiwan and China, according to a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit.
EIU defines a conflict as a “full-conflict scenario, involving direct military participation by China, Taiwan and the U.S.” and based on the presumption of an escalation by China.
To be clear, the EIU assesses the risk of a direct Chinese military assault on Taiwan as “very unlikely.” But should it occur, the three economies will be “most vulnerable” due to their proximity to the Taiwan Strait and heavy trade ties with China, but more importantly, because these three countries are U.S. treaty allies.
China sees self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province that should be reunified with the mainland. Chinese President Xi Jinping has previously said China will “strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification,” but “will never promise to give up the use of force.”
Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state and separate from China, having ruled itself since the Nationalist government fled there from the mainland in 1949 following a protracted civil war. Tensions between Taiwan and China’s governments have risen over the years, and high-level U.S. politicians’ visits to Taiwan have drawn Beijing’s ire.
The report pointed out that Japan, South Korea and the Philippines host U.S. bases, which highlights their vulnerability to a preemptive Chinese attack, should China choose to go to war.
“We expect U.S. participation to activate that country’s regional security alliances,…
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