Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and ‘Barbenheimer’ are lifting consumer spending this quarter. But Morgan Stanley says it may not last

Consumer spending may not be out of the woods.

Real spending is expected to come in 1.9% higher in the third quarter, helped in part by stadium tours from music superstars Taylor Swift and Beyoncé, as well as summer movie blockbusters “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” according to Morgan Stanley. But the economic halo may be short lived, the firm warned on Wednesday.

Taken together, Morgan Stanley economist Sarah Wolfe said the “unprecedented” revenues tied to these events should add a seventh of one percentage point to consumption growth in the quarter. They fall under the movie consumption and non-sports live entertainment portions of the personal-consumption expenditures price index, known as the PCE.

Those sectors make up around 0.2% and 0.05% of the total index, respectively. That means fans showed up and spent enough in these typically miniscule business areas to substantially boost the health of the broader U.S. economy.

“These categories alone would have to see massive swings in order to impact overall economic activity,” Wolfe said in a note to clients. “And they have.”

But the end of those music tours in the U.S. and declining theater viewership for these films the rest of the year could lead to a 0.6-percentage-point “hangover effect” to consumer spending in the fourth quarter. Simultaneously, Wolfe said the return of student loan payments this fall should pull consumption down another by another eighth of a percentage point.

“The factors boosting 3Q consumption are extraordinary,” Wolfe said. “In 4Q, these factors not only unwind, but the October expiration of the student loan moratorium further weighs on consumption.”

Taylor Swift’s “Eras” and Beyoncé’s “Renaissance” tours have filled stadiums around the country and created online buzz.

Swift’s tour, in particular, has garnered attention for its expensive resale market and ticket purchasing fiasco that brought scrutiny to Ticketmaster…