Turks vote in crunch election as President Erdogan faces greatest threat to his 20-year rule

Millions of Turks are headed to the polls Sunday in what is set to be Turkey’s most consequential election in two decades, and one whose results will have implications far beyond its own borders.

The country of 85 million holds both its presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14. For the presidency — which is expected to be close — if no candidate wins more than 50%, the vote goes to a run-off two weeks later.

Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing his toughest test yet after two decades in power, grappling with public anger over worsening economic conditions and the slow government response to a series of devastating earthquakes in February that killed more than 50,000 people.

His primary opponent, 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), is running as a unity candidate representing six different parties that all want to see Erdogan out of power.  

In a possibly game-changing development, one of the four presidential candidates, Muharrem Ince, pulled out of the race Thursday. A former CHP member, he had been under heavy criticism for splitting the opposition vote in a way that would hurt Kilicdaroglu’s chances.

Now, with Ince out of the race, his votes may go to Erdogan’s top challenger Kilicdaroglu, helping him tremendously and spelling more trouble for the 69-year-old Erdogan.

Another crucial factor will be turnout: More than 5 million young Turks will be voting for the first time, and the greater the youth turnout, the better for the challenger candidate and the worse for the incumbent, election analysts say.