Ukraine ally Poland is moving to the political center. And that’s bad news for Russia’s Putin

Poland’s election result may not go down well in Moscow, as observers describe a victory for liberal centrism and an expected thawing of the country’s frosty relations with both the EU and neighboring Ukraine.

The incumbent Law and Justice (PiS) party won the highest percentage of the vote in the electon held Sunday, with 35.4% — but opposition groups look set to form a parliamentary majority.

Donald Tusk — leader of the center-right Civic Platform party and the anti-PiS opposition’s figurehead — positioned the vote as a chance to restore democratic norms and liberal values to the country, following eight years of nationalist, socially-conservative rhetoric and policymaking.

“Moscow is unlikely to welcome a decisive victory of political parties with a strong pro-EU and pro-Ukraine stance,” Andrius Tursa, central and eastern Europe advisor at consultancy Teneo, told CNBC.

While Russia focuses its attention on forging closer relationships with the likes of China and India, EU unity remains a thorn in Putin’s side as the nations agree more Russian sanctions and military and economic support packages for Ukraine.

Poland has the EU’s fifth-largest economy and population, and has been an influential member since 2004. It plays a significant geopolitical role as a NATO base with around 10,000 U.S. troops stationed in the country. It has taken in more than a million refugees from its close ally Ukraine since the start of the war, with many more millions passing through it.

However, relations with the EU have become tense during eight years of PiS rule over Warsaw’s near-total ban on abortion, an alleged chilling of media freedoms. The bloc has withheld billions in funding from Poland because of concerns over the erosion of judicial independence.

Its relations with Ukraine have soured in recent months, partly because of a dispute over…