Ukraine’s push into Russian-occupied territory was bold — but a breakthrough is far from guaranteed

Following the confirmation that Ukrainian forces had crossed the Dnieper river into Russian-occupied territory in recent weeks, hopes have risen that this could be a small but key breakthrough in the six-month counteroffensive against Russia.

The Dnieper has effectively operated as a front line in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson, separating Ukrainian troops on the west bank from Russian forces on the east, or left, bank. Russian forces had retreated to the east bank last year following an earlier counteroffensive by Ukraine that left the Kherson region — strategically important given its location above Russian-annexed Crimea — partially occupied.

Then the official confirmation came earlier this month that Ukrainian forces, including marine infantry and special operations forces, had managed to cross the wide Dnieper river in more substantial numbers than in previous sorties, and had established several footholds on the east bank.

The development, described as a small but significant breakthrough by military analysts, has spurred hopes that Ukraine could build on those positions and advance south toward Crimea, potentially breaking a land bridge that Russia has established between its territory and the peninsula via a swathe of occupied southern Ukraine.

“The left-bank [of the Dnieper river] in Kherson is very important because it’s near to Crimea,” Oleksandr Musiyenko, a Ukrainian military expert and head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies in Kyiv, told CNBC.

“Our forces right now on the ground, on the left bank are just 70 kilometers from occupied Crimea,” he said, “so if we have success in this offensive operation, that means that we will move behind Russian forces, we can break up their logistics, and also we can move forward to the west and to the south to occupied Crimea, and they will have a…