Why Stellantis could face a longer strike than Ford or GM

The United Auto Workers labor union launched targeted strikes against the three Detroit automakers early Friday morning. The stoppages affect three plants that make popular models such as the Ford Bronco, Chevrolet Colorado and Jeep Wrangler.

It’s the first time in history that the UAW has struck all three of the Detroit automakers at once. But while the strikes began at the same time, they may play out very differently in the days to come — with Stellantis potentially facing a tougher road to a deal than its crosstown rivals Ford Motor and General Motors.

Stellantis has a problem that its local rivals don’t. The company, formed in early 2021 from a merger between Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and French automaker Peugeot, has more production capacity around the world than it needs. Stellantis has signaled that it intends to close or sell 18 of its U.S. facilities, including factories and parts depots. The company has a total of about 35 factories and parts distribution centers in the U.S. now.

That’s a plan that the union is unlikely to accept willingly.

It’s possible that Stellantis has been preparing for a lengthy strike with that in mind: The company had more vehicles in its U.S. dealer inventories at the beginning of September than either of its crosstown rivals.

The auto industry measures inventory in terms of “days’ supply,” based on the rate of sales of each model over the previous 30 days. According to data from Cox Automotive, all four of Stellantis’ U.S. brands had more than 100 days’ worth of vehicles on dealer lots or in transit to dealers as of the beginning of September. GM’s Cadillac and Chevrolet brands had just 46 days’ and 51 days’ worth of vehicles, respectively; the Ford brand had 77 days’ worth.

The industrywide average was 58 days’ supply as of the…