Early on Oct. 13, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon delivered some perhaps prophetic words: “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.” The S & P 500 closed the prior session at 4,349. Over the past nine weeks since then, the index has gained roughly 9%, as of Monday morning trading. I’m sure some of you sold on Dimon’s words, which accompanied a strong third quarter for the bank. He is, after all, the most important banker on Earth, with sources far greater than almost anyone. On Nov. 29, Dimon reiterated at The New York Times’ DealBook Summit: “It’s dangerous,” again citing the geopolitical strife caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine and Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel. The S & P 500 finished that day at 4,550 — an increase of 3.7% from Friday’s close of 4,719. In fact, Dimon has been saying some variation of this “dangerous” theme for some time now. We chose not to ignore them. You can’t ignore the sirens of a man you respect. But on the other, you can’t tailor your investment thesis to it — no more than the crypto people can tailor their investments to when Dimon said on Dec. 6 at a Senate Banking Committee hearing: “If I was the government, I’d close it down.” Bitcoin has lost 5.6% since then, trading around $41,300 on Monday morning. However, bitcoin year-to-date has surged 148%. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 year to date Yes, we do have a dangerous world. We have faced an Evil Empire in the Soviet Union that threatened us constantly, as then-President Ronald Reagan made sure we knew in the 1980s. In 2002, President George W. Bush told us about an Iran, Iraq, and North Korea Axis of Evil — each capable of launching weapons of mass destruction. There’s an Axis of Evil once again with Russia, Iran and China. At any given time since the end of World War II, with the exception of a period between 1945 and 1950 when the Korean War began, we have been involved in conflicts that could trigger a nuclear war. These are all dangerous times. I…
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