STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — Many eyeballs will peak into Punxsutawney, Pa., on Groundhog Day, when the town’s greatest resident, Punxsutawney Phil, proclaims whether winter will extend six weeks — or we’ll have an early spring.
The famous prognosticator has been making weather predictions from his Gobbler’s Knob home since 1887.
And as Groundhog Day 2024 quickly approaches, the pressure is on for Phil to hit on his prediction.
Thing is, the famous groundhog has a not-so-great accuracy rate.
Phil has an overall accuracy rate of 39% over 135 years, according to StormFax Weather Almanac. That’d be historically excellent if Phil played baseball (.390 batting average? Hall of Famer!)
INTO THE NUMBERS
Previous data noted over the course of 29 years — from 1988 to 2017 — Phil’s prediction was accurate just 13 times. However, in some years, Phil’s predictions received a mixed grade, when temperatures fell below-average in February, then rose to above-average for a warm March.
From 1887 to 2023, Phil predicted long-lasting winters 107 times while predicting only 20 early springs. During that time, there were 10 years where no record of Phil’s prediction were documented.
What makes a groundhog prediction accurate? At the end of the six-week period, if there are more atypical weather days than typical weather days, it means we had an early spring. If there are more typical weather days than atypical weather days, we had six more weeks of winter. Atypical days are defined as days when the temperature rises above 40 degrees.
According to tradition, when a groundhog emerges from its burrow and sees its shadow, six more weeks of winter are on the way. If no shadow can be found, we can expect an early spring.
For comparison’s sake Staten Island’s hometown hog, Chuck, has an 80% accuracy rate that dates back to 1981 (Chuck’s first year in the job), according to his Staten Island Zoo caretakers. According to Staten Island Zoo board of trustees President William Frew,…
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