‘Homebrew’ storm could bring heavy rain to N.Y. this weekend: AccuWeather

STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — A disturbance may develop off the southeastern United States coast this week, hurricane forecasters warn, possibly bringing a spate of heavy rain and gusty wind toward New York.

The National Hurricane Center said the system, which may form northeast of Florida because of a stalled weather pattern, has a 30% chance for formation over the next seven days.

Unlike storms that typically generate power within tropical areas, forecasters said conditions could allow for this system to form right off the East Coast.

“Stalled fronts along the southeastern coast of the United States are one way a ‘homebrew’ tropical system can form,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in a release.

Warm waters spurred by an existing El Niño climate pattern have allowed for storms to become supercharged this year, and AccuWeather said ocean temperatures remain warm enough for the area of low pressure to become a tropical development later this week.

However, strong breezes could weaken the system’s ability to develop, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said, and the presence of wind shear — upper-level atmospheric wind that shreds storms apart — makes it highly unlikely the storm will reach hurricane strength.

“There will be stiff southerly breezes [wind shear] a few thousand miles above the surface in this zone,” Douty said. “Not only might the wind shear inhibit full tropical development, it may also push the system onshore swiftly and essentially end the development process.”

Regardless of its potential development into a named tropical storm, forecasters said strong rain and thunderstorms could be produced by the system along a wide swath of the East Coast later this week.

“It is possible that even if the center of the storm manages to linger right along the coast, heavy rain and thunderstorms associated with…