It’s not every day that an academic paper inspires a flurry of apocalyptic headlines, and one that expands the lexicon is even rarer still.
But Columbia Business School professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh’s use of the phrase “urban doom loop” in 2022 initiated an intense national debate began about the future of U.S. cities like New York in the era of remote work.
A year ago, Gothamist examined his hypothesis, which was first seen in his paper “The Remote Work Revolution: Impact on Real Estate Values and the Urban Environment.” In sum, he argued that if workers continued to stay away from commercial districts like Midtown and Lower Manhattan, the subsequent loss of billions of dollars in real estate, transportation and other government revenues could force cuts in essential services, fueling problems (i.e., more homelessness, dirtier streets and worse commutes) that prompt even more workers to stay away.
Doom loop fears haven’t been confined to New York. Office occupancy rates have also declined sharply in cities like Charlotte, Hartford, Atlanta and Milwaukee. Major employers have left Chicago. In San Francisco, predictions of what SFGate calls “an inevitably empty, dystopian city” have prompted a doom loop backlash, complete with ironic “SF is Dead” T-shirts.
But in a December interview at his office overlooking the Hudson, Van Nieuwerburgh said New York appears to be weathering the storm in some ways. Workers are returning to the office at higher rates and tourism is nearly back to its pre-pandemic levels.
But the “Prophet of Urban Doom,” as one headline called the Columbia scholar, said it’s too soon to declare victory as serious budget cuts loom on the horizon.
In terms of foot traffic in business districts, New York is doing better than other American cities such as Dallas, Chicago and San Francisco, but the pace of improvement has especially lagged downtown, where the office visitation rate was 60% in October, compared to 71% in Midtown, according to…
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