Idalia strengthens and is now predicted to hit Florida as a Category 4 hurricane

People are shown at the beach in Tampa, Florida, on Aug. 29, 2023 as the city prepares for Hurricane Idalia.

MIGUEL J. RODRIGUEZ CARRILLO/Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo/AFP

Hurricane Idalia continued to intensify late Tuesday as forecasters raised the anticipated strength of the storm when it makes landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast.

In its latest advisory at 11 p.m. ET, the National Hurricane Center said the storm was 125 miles west of Tampa in the Gulf of Mexico and remained a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 110 mph. That’s 1 mph shy of “major” Category 3 status. The NHC said Idalia is now forecasted to be at Category 4 strength at landfall on Wednesday with winds of at least 130 mph.

Additionally, forecasters again increased the storm surge potential to as high as 16 feet from the Wakulla/Jefferson County line to Yankeetown, Fla.

Swells continued to roil the Gulf of Mexico. A buoy (#42099) near the storm reported a wave height of nearly 34 feet.

Idalia has strengthened 40 mph since 2 a.m. ET Tuesday. That qualifies as a “rapid intensification” which the NHC defines as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. Such a rapid increase in wind speed used to be a rarity, but is happening more frequently, in part, because of climate change.

Even as the storm moves north through the Gulf of Mexico, local officials are warning residents to remain vigilant. In Tampa, for instance, city leaders are warning the worst of what could be a 4-to-6-foot storm surge could happen on Wednesday – well after the storm has passed.

In a briefing, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warned Floridians to “be…