New York City’s budget watchdog estimates it will cost $6 billion to 7.8 billion to care for the city’s migrants over the next two years, up to $4.8 billion less than what the mayor’s office forecast in August.
The new Independent Budget Office’s estimates — far shy of the $10.8 billion, two-year tab forecast by the Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget just months ago — are predicated on the city’s providing for fewer migrants than projected by the mayor’s office, along with lower per-diem costs, according to the IBO.
The difference between the two estimates — as much as $4.8 billion, through the end of June 2025 — is greater than the annual fire and sanitation department budgets combined.
The city is in the midst of implementing new 30- and 60-day limits on shelter stays — intended to curb the growing shelter population and costs. The policy wasn’t accounted for in the mayor’s earlier spending estimates. Some immigrant and housing advocates opposed to the stay limits have questioned whether they will actually reduce costs as displaced migrants unable to find housing on their own are permitted to reapply for shelter.
Savings on migrant spending, along with jobs left vacant, are key drivers of what the IBO projects as a $3.6 billion overall city surplus for the fiscal year that runs through June. The agency says that surplus will contribute to a smaller-than-expected budget gap next fiscal year, now projected at $1.8 billion.
The Adams administration has a much bleaker budget outlook, projecting a $7.1 billion shortfall.
Mayor Eric Adams has recited the budget gap and ballooning migrants costs — more than 65,000 migrants are in the city’s care — in calling for severe belt-tightening, including another 5% budget cut this fall to city agencies, with cuts to libraries, school staff, pre-K and composting, and a freeze on hiring new police officers.
But the IBO’s report bolsters claims from City Council members that the city’s…
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