Hurricane Fiona moves up the United States Atlantic coast, Thursday night, Sept. 22, 2022. This image provided by the National Hurricane Center shows a satellite view as Hurricane Fiona pounded Bermuda with heavy rains and winds.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is now projected to have “above-normal level of activity” according to the annual forecast update by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The above-normal prediction is a change from NOAA’s May outlook, which showed that for the first time in eight years, there would be a “near-normal” number of storms.
Earlier in the season, NOAA forecast 12 to 17 named storms. Now the agency projects 14 to 21 storms. The prediction includes tropical storms and hurricanes. About half of those are expected to be full-blown hurricanes. Not all storms make landfall.
“During active years, there’s a doubling in the chance of a hurricane hitting the East Coast of the U.S. compared to an average or below-average season,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season outlook forecaster, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA says there have been five named storms so far this year. Even though the agency has boosted its activity prediction, the change from May is not unusual. “These changes are well in line with many of the prior outlooks,” said Rosencrans.
The main reason scientists expect more activity is that ocean water in areas of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes form is abnormally warm right now. It’s expected to stay that way throughout hurricane season, which officially started on June 1 and runs through November. That’s part of a global trend of rising ocean…
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