What does Tom Suozzi’s big win in NY-3 mean for November elections?

Tom Suozzi is heading back to Congress after winning Tuesday’s special election against Republican candidate Mazi Pilip — and Democrats are hoping it’s a sign of things to come.

Suozzi, a Democrat, easily defeated Pilip in the race to replace expelled Rep. George Santos in New York’s 3rd Congressional District, which includes parts of Nassau County and eastern Queens.

It’s a major win for Democrats that chips away at the Republicans’ already razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives ahead of the November elections. And it could provide a blueprint for other Democratic candidates in suburban districts across the country — including on Long Island, where Republicans bolstered their stronghold in recent election cycles.

“I’ve been promoting the idea that this is a national bellwether — that it’ll tell politicians, political operatives and donors all over the country what messages and tactics and strategies will play in other swing suburbs,” said Lawrence Levy, executive dean of Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies.

The win marks a return to Washington for Suozzi, who gave up his congressional seat in 2022 for an ill-fated run for governor. But he’s only guaranteed the seat through the end of the year. He will need to run again in November to continue serving for a full two-year term beyond that.

Here’s what the special election does — and doesn’t — tell us about November:

National issues rule the day — and likely will again

Tuesday’s race was dominated by national issues that Levy calls the “three I’s and an A”: immigration, Israel, inflation and abortion. That stands to reason since there were decidedly national implications.

There’s no reason to think those same issues won’t still be relevant once the June primary and November general election roll…