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The Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump rematch is a presumptive reality after the president and former president both dominated Republican and Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday.
The flaws, general unpopularity and baked-in perceptions of both candidates suggest the coming election will be one of mutually assured destruction, where Republicans try to make Biden seem as old and feeble as possible and Democrats equate a second Trump term with the end of democracy as we know it.
If 2024 is anything like 2020 (or 2016, for that matter), the Republican or Democratic winner will eke past the loser in a handful of key states – which means third-party or independent candidates, even though they have little chance of winning such a hotly contested election, could play an important role in deciding the outcome.
Third parties. The Libertarian Party has been on the ballot in every state in recent elections. The Green Party is usually on the ballot in most but not all states. Those parties have not traditionally drawn large followings, but in elections with close margins, the tens of thousands of votes they win in key states in any given year lead to a lot of speculation.
It has been argued that stronger Libertarian and Green Party tickets in 2016, led by former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, respectively, sucked support from Hillary Clinton and helped elect Trump. There was similar grousing with regard to the Green Party’s Ralph Nader in Florida in 2000.
But most in-depth assessments conclude that it’s not realistic to assume third-party voters would simply opt for a major-party candidate if the third-party option was not available. The Libertarian Party will pick a nominee…
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