Early South Carolina exit poll shows highly conservative electorate, with many identifying with MAGA movement

The electorate that Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are battling to win in South Carolina is a highly conservative one and looks much more like Iowa than New Hampshire, according to the initial results of CNN’s exit poll for the state’s Republican presidential primary.

As in January’s Iowa caucuses, well over 4 in 10 South Carolina primary voters describe themselves as affiliated with the MAGA movement, the exit poll finds.

Roughly 8 in 10 say that they’re conservatives, with more than 4 in 10 calling themselves very conservative.

And only about one-third acknowledge that Joe Biden was the legitimate victor of the 2020 presidential election – similar to Iowa, but lower than in New Hampshire, where nearly half of primary voters acknowledged Biden’s victory.

Trump dominated the Iowa caucuses, taking 51% of the vote, while Haley trailed in third place behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who later dropped out of the race. The outcome was closer in New Hampshire, but Trump still came out ahead 54% to 43% over Haley.

Exit polls are a valuable tool to help understand primary voters’ demographic profile and political views. Like all surveys, however, exit polls are estimates, not precise measurements of the electorate. That’s particularly true for the preliminary set of exit poll numbers, which haven’t yet been weighted to match the final results of the primary. But the results provide a glimpse into the type of voters turning out to participate.

The early exit poll also showed that most South Carolina GOP primary voters had made up their minds before 2024 had even started. More than three-quarters say they decided whom to support for president sometime prior to January, and fewer than one-tenth say they made up their mind in the week prior to voting.

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