These are the races that will determine the nation’s direction in 2024

In today’s closely balanced and highly polarized political environment, the line between victory and defeat for the two parties has grown so thin that control of the White House and Congress typically pivots on the small number of contests within reach for both sides. That means a tiny handful of races this year will likely serve as the tipping points that set the direction for a nation of nearly 335 million people.

Close elections that leave power in Washington teetering between the two parties have become a defining feature of modern American politics. Neither party has maintained simultaneous control of the White House and both congressional chambers for more than four consecutive years since 1968 – after one party or the other enjoyed such unified control almost constantly for the seven decades before that. The Senate and House are now split almost exactly in half between the two parties. Polls likewise show that voters divide almost evenly about a potential rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

It’s premature to predict which party will emerge from the 2024 election with the upper hand. But it’s not too soon to identify the contests that will most likely function as the tipping points in 2024. Here’s my attempt to identify the places and races that will most likely decide the nation’s direction after November’s election:

Throughout this century, the Senate has almost always teetered on a knife’s edge. In the 12 congressional sessions since 2001, one party or the other has reached a Senate majority of 55 seats only three times (Democrats in 2009 and 2013 and Republicans in 2005). Rarely since the Civil War has the Senate been so closely divided for so long a period; in the last two decades of the 20th century, for instance, one party or the other reached 55 Senate seats in seven of the 10 congressional sessions.

…