As a Ukraine aid package continues to stall in the US Congress, America and its allies are assessing what they describe as the potentially debilitating impact on Ukraine’s defense and longer-term prospects of losing the war, multiple US and European officials told CNN.
“There is no guarantee of success with us, but they are certain to fail without us,” a senior US military official said.
The most immediate concern is the impact on Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive in the east and south, where Ukrainian forces have struggled to make significant forward progress even when US support was still coming. “If looking at taking and holding further territory,” said one European diplomat, “it is hard to see how that could succeed without continued US support.”
More broadly, Western officials fear the loss or further delay of US support will impact aid from its allies. On Friday, Ukraine suffered another blow when Hungary blocked further European Union aid, though talks on the issue are expected to resume in January. The news underlined the scale of the challenge facing Kyiv and many fear that if the US fails to continue providing support, European nations will follow.
“If we go south,” said Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley, who co-chairs the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, “our allies will too.”
Now, Western intelligence agencies are currently calculating how long Ukraine could hold out without US and NATO help. One senior US military official estimated months, with a worst-case scenario of a significant setback or even defeat by the summer. A Russian victory would not just be dire news for Ukraine, it would be disaster for wider European security and a major blow to the US.
Asked about the continued delay in US aid, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told CNN from Brussels, “We can’t talk about war fatigue right now because if…
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