Ukrainian forces are facing a “tough” winter and a difficult year ahead, as Western intelligence assessments do not expect significant movement on the frontlines in the coming months, two Western officials and a senior US military official told CNN.
In the nearer term, Western intelligence agencies expect Russia to expand its bombardment of civilian infrastructure, including electrical facilities, in an attempt to inflict further suffering on the civilian population during the cold winter months.
Progress on the battlefield has been slow in recent weeks, with Ukrainian forces’ forward movement limited to just one mile in some areas and a handful of miles in others. Western intelligence assessments indicate the frontlines are unlikely to change much in the coming months.
One continuing factor hampering the Ukrainian counteroffensive is the lack of air power to support operations on the ground. F-16 fighter aircraft promised by NATO are not expected to arrive soon enough, or in significant enough numbers, to alter the battlefield dynamic for some time and some estimates expect it will take well into next year before that firepower could have an effect.
Looking into 2024, NATO allies fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin may attempt a broader offensive following his expected victory in his country’s presidential elections in March.
Playing to Ukraine’s advantage, however, is the fact that any Russian offensive is expected to meet stiff Ukrainian resistance. “On the other hand,” a senior Western official told CNN, “Ukraine will have the defender’s advantage, and they are very tough at that”.
With its long-anticipated counteroffensive on the ground in the south and east largely stymied by Russian defenses, Western officials note that the Ukrainian military has made significant progress in other areas. Ukrainian…
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