If Vladimir Putin was watching the Republican presidential debate on Wednesday night, he would have found one more reason to dig in for a long war of attrition in Ukraine.
Fierce rhetorical clashes over the conflict laid bare a widening split in the GOP between Donald Trump’s “America First” creed and the increasingly eclipsed hawkish internationalism once epitomized by President Ronald Reagan.
The showdown could have deep implications for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s effort to eject Russian forces from all of Ukrainian soil as it will put the multi-billion dollar American aid pipeline on which he relies in serious doubt.
If President Joe Biden wins reelection next year, he’s unlikely to desert Ukraine – though increasing skepticism among American voters about his government’s generosity towards Kyiv could make it harder to pass massive aid packages through Congress. But if Trump or another like-minded Republican wins the presidency, the US could cede its role as leader of the West supporting Ukraine’s fight for survival. This, along with Kyiv’s slower-than-expected summer offensive, could also change the geopolitical dynamics surrounding the war and increase outside pressure on Zelensky and among wavering European states for a settlement while Biden is still in the White House.
But Putin’s calculations may be shaped by the possibility of a new US president who is not committed to the war.
While Trump wasn’t on stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday – he skipped the debate, saying he was too far ahead in the primary for it to be worth his while – the populist, transactional foreign policy transformation he triggered in the party was on full display.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy acted as Trump’s stand-in, mining a deep seam of skepticism over the war among GOP grassroots voters.
“Ukraine is not a…
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