Republican Donald Trump is in a better position against Democrat Joe Biden now than at any point during the entire 2020 campaign. The former president leads the current president in more than his fair share of polls of registered voters, including in a number of key swing states.
But it seems plausible that these initial polls may be underestimating Biden’s position. In a change from the usual expected dynamic in which Democrats are supposed to do better with higher turnout, Biden may benefit when pollsters look at likely voters instead of all registered voters.
Put another way, Trump may do better in an election in which turnout is higher.
Take a look at a New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier this month. Trump had a 2 point advantage among registered voters. Biden was up 2 points among likely voters. Both of those are within the margin of error, but it’s a notable 4 point shift towards Biden when comparing likely and registered voters.
Now, I don’t want to make too much of a deal out of one poll, but another pollster found something analogous. An average of the last two Marquette University Law School surveys showed the former president up by 4 points among registered voters, while Biden and Trump were tied among likely voters. As with the Times data, this is a 4 point shift toward Biden when going from registered to likely voters.
An October Grinnell College poll conducted by Ann Selzer similarly found that 2020 Biden voters were 4 points more likely to say they would definitely vote than 2020 Trump voters.
This would be quite the shift from what had historically been seen. Normally, Republicans gain about 2 points when going from registered to likely voters.
It is possible, of course, that the recent poll data is just statistical noise.
The 2024 polling does make sense, though, in the context of both…
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