Former President Donald Trump is a heavy favorite to win the 2024 Republican nomination. He’s getting over 60% in a number of national surveys of the GOP primary and holds the advantage in every early state that’s been polled.
Yet, recent data and history suggest that Trump may be in more trouble than is apparent at first glance in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire. Granite State Republicans, for whom Trump is not their first choice, seem to be searching for an alternative and may not settle on one until late in the campaign.
Take a look at CNN’s most recent survey of the state’s GOP primary conducted by the University of New Hampshire. Trump led the field with 39%, while no one else was anywhere close. Four candidates (businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis) were all between 10% and 13% of the primary vote.
The poll was devastating news for DeSantis, who has seen his numbers plummet this year. He had led the field with 42% in UNH’s January poll but has been tumbling since.
Trump, meanwhile, is as steady as he has ever been. Each of the last three UNH polls taken of the race had him between 37% and 42% of the vote.
This makes New Hampshire unique. Unlike his national standing, Trump is well under 50% here. He doesn’t even clear 50% when you take into account voters’ second choices.
The 39% Trump registered in the poll among voters’ first choices is less than the 46% he received in Fox Business polls released this past week in the early-voting states of Iowa and South Carolina.
It’s pretty clear that Trump can be beaten in New Hampshire, if the roughly 60% who aren’t with him now rally behind one candidate.
That’s easier said than done, but I think it’s possible given the data…
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