Why the suburbs are the most contested ground in Tuesday’s elections

The biggest question in Tuesday’s elections may be whether Democrats can maintain their advantages in the nation’s biggest population centers – despite all the headwinds buffeting the party.

Geographic polarization has been one of the most powerful trends in American politics for roughly the past two decades, with Democrats gaining ground in the most populous metropolitan areas almost everywhere, and Republicans growing stronger in the smaller places beyond them. That trend notably accelerated after Donald Trump emerged as the GOP’s dominant figure in 2016 and has ratcheted up since the Supreme Court rescinded the constitutional right to abortion last year.

The GOP’s dominance of exurban, small-town and rural areas helped Trump win the White House in 2016 and has allowed the party to solidify its grip up and down the ballot on interior states with large nonurban populations. But Republicans’ retreat from the well-educated inner suburbs around major cities has been the principal reason for their disappointing results in the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections, as well as the anti-abortion movement’s defeat in a series of ballot initiatives since the 2022 Supreme Court decision.

By traditional measures, the political environment for Tuesday’s election again looks favorable for Republicans, with most voters expressing dissatisfaction about both the economy and President Joe Biden’s job performance. But all of those conditions were present in the 2022 midterms, when Republicans underperformed anyway, mostly because of continued resistance in the major population centers – especially those well-educated inner suburbs where most voters oppose new restrictions on abortion.

The largest urban and suburban areas will likely determine whether Democrats can defy political gravity once again this year in Tuesday’s key elections, from Kentucky and Ohio to Virginia and…