“I’m only betting on him because of the weather”: With more snow forecast, this unexpected Bills prop is taking off

As the AFC Divisional Round NFL playoff game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs approaches, another unexpected prop bet is gaining traction among savvy Buffalo Bills fans. The focus? Bills running back James Cook, with bets pouring in on Buffalo’s dynamic RB to exceed 61.5 rushing yards in Sunday’s showdown. This surge in betting activity is not just based on Cook’s athletic prowess but is intricately linked to the weather forecast—more snow is on the horizon.

Analytical insights and Bills vs. Chiefs betting edge

This unique betting trend first caught the spotlight when data analysts at Dimers.com unearthed a substantial 15.9% betting edge on FanDuel’s -114 odds for Cook recording more than 61.5 yards on Sunday. A similar edge on Cook’s -111 odds at BetMGM was noted as well. The analysts didn’t just make a cursory evaluation; they simulated the game a staggering 10,000 times. The outcome? A convincing 69.2% probability that Cook will surpass the 61.5-yard mark.

Weather impact on gameplay

The rationale behind this surge in betting on Cook’s performance is deeply rooted in the expected weather conditions. Forecasts predict heavy snowfall during the game, which typically hampers the passing game. This scenario leads teams to rely more heavily on their ground game, and for the Bills, that means putting their faith in James Cook’s rushing abilities. Cook, known for his agility and quick adaptation to play conditions, and coming off a 79-yard rushing performance in frigid conditions against the Steelers last week, becomes an even more crucial player in such weather.