From high school and college sports competitors (and don’t forget the fans) to fall foliage aficionados and hiking enthusiasts, warm, dry weather “is what everybody is hoping for” over the next three months, acknowledged National Weather Service meteorologist Michael Murphy.
Early indications, including modeling by the national Climate Prediction Center and AccuWeather analysis, make it a good bet that at least part of that autumn weather wish list will come true: prepare for milder than normal temperatures in the Southern Tier, Western New York and northern Pennsylvania.
“For the Binghamton area, in September, October and November, we are favoring above normal temperatures,” said Murphy, a Binghamton-based meteorologist who often focuses on longer term weather outlooks.
According to Murphy, forecasters base their projections on long range weather modeling and climate signals, ocean temperatures and current trends.
However, those reveal only so much: the chance of wet weather is less clear following a summer with higher than normal precipitation in the Southern Tier.
“There is no real strong signal” on the precipitation outlook for fall, Murphy said.
September temperatures will be above normal in Southern Tier
Whether it turns out to be a wet or dry three months, don’t expect constant fall shivers when spending time outdoors, projections say.
Putting it simply, Murphy said, “There is 80% chance of near or above average temperatures for that three-month period” that includes back-to-school activities, football, soccer, seasonal festivals, Halloween scares and Thanksgiving.
So what are the normal or average temperatures for New York’s Southern Tier during the fall months? Here’s what the National Weather Service tracked over a 30-year period for Binghamton and the surrounding region:
- September: Usually receive about 4 inches of rain. Normal average temperature is 60 degrees. The maximum normal temperature is 69.5 degrees and the minimum normal temperature is…
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