The current spell of heat has brought the Buffalo Lake Erie temperature back to 73 degrees, 2 above average. We’re not done with the heat and humidity just yet, since an approaching cold front will only be crawling to the east, just getting here around the dinner hour Thursday.
Out ahead of the front in this rather steamy air mass, the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase Wednesday evening. A few of the storms may pack a punch, though a major severe weather outbreak is not in the offing. One high-resolution model has some vigorous storms reaching us early Wednesday evening, while other models hold off on such a threat that early. Since Wednesday evening is the big Buffalo sailing night, I thought I’d show the pessimistic model as a precaution.
Any convection will be uneven in coverage, with a good deal of rain-free time between showers and storms. In advance of the slow-moving front on a muggy Thursday, some occasional and spotty convection can be expected.
Temps will drop back to the low 80s, still well above average.
Even on Friday, the front will be nearby, just to our east, so a few more spotty convective cells can’t be ruled out. Temps will be more seasonable, in the mid-70s, though humidity behind the front won’t drop much until Friday evening.
That first front will tend to stall out near central New York on Saturday, which will likely leave us with more clouds than sun and still a risk for a few stray showers. Temps will be in the mid-70s.
Even on Sunday, no strong push of drying high pressure will move in, so models are still pointing to a risk for a few showers, with a tendency for more activity south and east of the metro area.
Sunday will be cooler, with a high closer to 70. None of this is to suggest this weekend will be a washout, but it does appear conditions will remain somewhat unsettled.
If you’re headed to New Jersey for the Bills game, early signs hint of a few afternoon…
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