On Monday, I wrote the coming warmth would be above average for early September, but would come up short of “midsummer heat.” That’s no longer the case; it’s going to be real heat after all. Before we get to that, let’s glance at how meteorological summer, June through August, actually went.
No one is going to declare this period to have been a truly great summer. There were the episodes of Canadian wildfire smoke pollution, there was the above-average rainfall in July, but the actual statistics prove this summer had more than its share of good moments to balance things out — not the least of which was our escape from the oppressive and sometimes dangerous heat slamming the southeast, Florida, the south and the southwest.
The Buffalo June mean temperature was precisely average for the month, with 2.42 inches of rainfall, running almost an inch below average. July brought a small positive anomaly in the mean temperature of +1.1 degree. However, rainfall totaled 5.54 inches, running well above the average of 3.23 inches. August was cooler, coming in with a mean temperature which was -1.5 degrees below average, a statistically small anomaly. Rainfall ended up just barely below average, at 3.12 inches, -.11 inches.
This leaves just Wyoming County with moderate drought conditions, and the majority of Western New York as of early this week at about normal, meaning soil moisture is in decent shape over much of the region. Those drawing well water to the southeast may be seeing shortfalls.
You may know I’m not much of a fan of monthly outlooks due to increasing uncertainties further out in time. This time around, however, the Climate Prediction Center’s September temperature probabilities seem to me to have a better than usual chance of verifying for at least half of the month.
An exceptionally persistent ridge of hot high pressure will remain stacked up over the southern plains for some of…
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