Until Sunday evening, Buffalo had no measurable rain since May 20. May was quite dry, with 1.15-inch rainfall compared to an average of 3.37 inches. The very dry pattern pushed us closer to drought conditions as of last week.
The abnormally dry status will be changing when new data is submitted early Tuesday. The total rainfall in the next few days will be significant and greatly improve topsoil conditions, though it won’t be sufficient to make up for the total recent shortfall.
The Monday morning rain will thin out and become more intermittent by Monday evening, following some afternoon dry periods. Most of the overnight period will be dry, with temps dropping back to the low 50s by dawn Tuesday.
On Tuesday, some morning sunshine should boost the high to near 70, but another area of low pressure will bring additional scattered showers and thunderstorms by late in the day and into Tuesday night.
During Wednesday, showers early in the day will wind down, but a few more will return later in the day in the cooler flow behind the departing low.
The afternoon high will only reach the mid-60s, and it will be breezy at times.
Total rainfall will vary across the region. The steadiest rain occurred Monday morning, but additional rounds of scattered showers as mentioned will enter more into the moisture coffers as modeled, but with an emphasis on uneven coverage.
It will still be somewhat unsettled Thursday, with a few showers possible under a partly sunny sky, and a high near 70. Friday and Saturday will be dry with more abundant sunshine, and temps recovering to the upper 70s by Saturday and Sunday. However, some scattered showers and thunderstorms may return for a portion of a partly cloudy Sunday.
With only limited evaporation later this week, farms and gardens should be able to keep most of their newfound moisture, with this estimated seven-day rainfall total from the Weather Prediction Center.
In the extended range, upper air ensembles…
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