Erie County may be financially healthy at the moment, but Comptroller Kevin Hardwick is waiving the yellow caution flag and warning of the potential for expenses to outstrip revenue in two years unless changes are made.
His 14-page letter about County Executive Mark Poloncarz’s proposed 2024 budget offered a “gloomy forecast,” citing the 56 new jobs added; new contractual raises, promotions, overtime costs and cost-of-living expenses for employees; skyrocketing expenses related to Erie County Medical Center; and sharp growth in unfunded state mandates and discretionary spending not offset by new revenue.
“Due to substantial increases in County spending over the past four years, as well as New York State actions to shift mandated spending onto county governments, the County faces budget gaps starting in 2025 that I believe must be addressed now,” Hardwick wrote in a letter to the county Legislature.
The spending plan, which crossed the $2 billion mark for this year and is slated to exceed $2 billion next year, would grow the general fund budget by 9%. Due to a compromise reached with county Legislature Republicans, the amount of money the county collects in property taxes would fall slightly.
But rising and recurring expenses are undeniably putting a greater strain on the budget, according to the comptroller’s analysis. High sales tax revenue has prevented county taxpayers from feeling any fallout, but Hardwick said a recession could change that dynamic.
“Sales tax is running good right now, but you never know,” he said. “We’re very much dependent on our sales tax in Erie County. We get about twice as much from our sales tax as we do from our property tax, so a recession is going to put us in tough times.”
County Deputy Budget Director Mark Cornell also expressed concerns Tuesday about rising, anticipated costs and falling revenue down the road, though there are no plans to dip into county reserves for next year.
“While we don’t…
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